What is solo mining luck?

Solo mining luck measures how fortunate you are relative to the statistical average. 100% means you found a block exactly on schedule. Above 100% means lucky (found it faster). Below 100% means unlucky. Every hash has equal odds — past results don't affect future ones.

Is solo mining worth it for home miners?

Statistically no — pool mining pays consistently. But many home miners solo mine for the pure lottery excitement: quiet, low power, runs 24/7, and might one day win 3.125 BTC. Think of it as a lottery ticket that never expires.

Has anyone won a solo Bitcoin block with a home miner?

Yes — documented cases exist of small solo miners winning full Bitcoin blocks worth over $150,000. CKPool tracks these events. While extremely rare, it confirms the lottery is real and open to anyone.

Bitcoin Solo Mining Calculator — Odds, Luck & Block Probability

⚙️

Your Mining Setup

Select miner or enter custom hashrate

Your Hashrate

TH/s

Unit

Mining Duration for luck score

How long have you been mining solo? Calculates your luck so far.

BTC Price (EUR) auto-loaded

€

Your Current Solo Mining Luck See real wins →

—

Enter your hashrate and how long you've been mining to calculate your luck score.

🎯

Chance / Day

—

probability

⏳

Expected Wait

—

📡

Your Share

of network

🪙

Expected BTC / yr

—

🏆

Block Jackpot

—

if you win solo

📊

Blocks / Year

—

expected

📅

Cumulative Probability Over Time

1 hour

—

1 day

—

1 week

—

1 month

—

1 year

—

10 years

—

🎲

Solo Block Lottery Simulator

Each cell = one 10-minute block window. Will you find the block?

Hit the button to experience the Bitcoin solo mining lottery

⚖️

Solo vs Pool Mining Comparison

Metric	Solo Mining	Pool Mining
Income type	Lottery	Steady
Est. daily (EUR)	—	—
Est. per year (EUR)	—	—
Jackpot if you win	—	N/A
Pool fee	0%	~1–2%
Minimum payout	Full block 3.125 BTC	~0.001 BTC

Solo Mining FAQ

Solo mining luck measures how fortunate you are versus the statistical average. 100% means you found a block exactly when expected. Above 100% is lucky (found it faster). Below 100% means you've waited longer than average — but every hash has equal odds regardless of history.

A NerdQAxe++ at 4.8 TH/s vs an ~800 EH/s network has roughly a 1-in-167 billion chance per 10-minute block. The NerdOctaxe doubles this with 8 chips. The expected wait is statistically millions of years — but solo blocks have been found by small miners. It's a lottery with no expiry date.

Probability per block = your hashrate ÷ network hashrate. Cumulative probability over N blocks = 1 − (1 − p)^N. Expected time = (network hashrate ÷ your hashrate) × 10 minutes. This calculator fetches the live network hashrate from mempool.space for accurate results.

For steady income, pool mining is better. But many home miners love the pure lottery thrill: quiet 24/7 operation, low power use, and a real (if tiny) chance to win a full block worth tens of thousands of euros. Think of it as the world's longest-running lottery ticket.

Yes — it has happened multiple times. CKPool documents solo miners winning full blocks worth $150,000+. In 2023–2024 there were several documented cases. It's extremely rare, but real. That's the whole point.

Bitcoin Solo Mining
Luck Calculator

⛏️ Ready to Start Solo Mining Bitcoin?

Solo Mining FAQ