Live Network Data

Bitcoin Solo Mining
Luck Calculator

Enter your miner's hashrate and get real-time probability, expected wait time, and your current luck score. Powered by live mempool data.

BTC Price
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Network Hashrate
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Difficulty
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Block Reward
3.125 BTC
⚙️
Your Mining Setup
Pick your miner, then add what you pay for power
1Miner
TH/s
W
How many miners?
1
1 miner · 6 TH/s · 80 W
2Electricity
€/kWh
Your electricity cost appears here.
3Luck so far optional

How long have you been mining solo? Calculates your luck so far.

€
Your Current Solo Mining Luck See real wins →
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Enter your hashrate and how long you've been mining to calculate your luck score.
— luck score
🎫Your daily solo ticketHow is this calculated?
Ticket price
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power per day
Odds
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to win each day
Prize
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a 3.125 BTC block
Back per €1 of power
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on average, over time
🎯
Chance / Day
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probability
⏳
Expected Wait
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📡
Your Share
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of network
🪙
Expected BTC / yr
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—
🏆
Block Jackpot
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if you win solo
📊
Blocks / Year
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expected
📅
Cumulative Probability Over Time
1 hour
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1 day
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1 week
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1 month
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1 year
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10 years
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🎲
Solo Block Lottery Simulator

Each cell = one 10-minute block window. Will you find the block?

Hit the button to experience the Bitcoin solo mining lottery
⚖️
Solo vs Pool Mining Comparison
MetricSolo MiningPool Mining
Income typeLotterySteady
Revenue / day——
Electricity / day——
Net / day after power——
Net / year after power——
Pays off below——
Jackpot if you win—N/A
Pool fee0%~1–2%
Minimum payoutFull block
3.125 BTC
~0.001 BTC

Solo revenue is the long-run average: most days a solo miner wins nothing, and one day the whole block.

🧮
How the calculator works

Every number above comes from these steps. The grey lines are the maths with your numbers filled in.

  1. Your share of the network — your hashrate divided by the hashrate of all Bitcoin miners together.
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  2. Chance to find a block today — the network finds about 144 blocks a day (one every 10 minutes), and every block is a new draw.
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  3. Expected wait — on average you need 1 ÷ your share blocks, 10 minutes each. It is an average: a block can come on day one or much later.
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  4. Revenue per day — your share of the 144 daily blocks, 3.125 BTC each, at today's BTC price. Solo mining gets this as one whole block now and then; a pool pays it out a little every day, minus its fee (we use 1%).
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  5. Electricity per day — watts × 24 hours ÷ 1,000 gives kWh a day, times your price per kWh.
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  6. Net and break-even — revenue minus electricity. Mining pays off while your power price is below revenue ÷ kWh used.
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  7. Back per €1 of power — revenue ÷ electricity: how much of every euro you spend on power comes back on average.
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  8. Luck score — how long you have mined ÷ the expected wait. Under 100% means it is still early; over 100% is normal bad luck, not a broken miner.
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Sources: network hashrate from mempool.space, BTC price in euros from CoinGecko (the site's saved price if that fails). The reward counts the 3.125 BTC subsidy only; real blocks also pay transaction fees, usually a little extra.

⛏️ Ready to Start Solo Mining Bitcoin?

Pick up a home miner and join the lottery. Every 10 minutes someone wins. EU stock, ships in 1–3 days via Mineshop.eu.

Browse Miners at Mineshop →

Solo Mining FAQ

What is solo mining luck?
Solo mining luck measures how fortunate you are versus the statistical average. 100% means you found a block exactly when expected. Above 100% is lucky (found it faster). Below 100% means you've waited longer than average — but every hash has equal odds regardless of history.
What are my odds with a NerdQAxe++ or NerdOctaxe?
A NerdQAxe++ at 6 TH/s against a ~950 EH/s network has about a 1-in-158-million chance per block, or about 1 in 1.1 million per day. The NerdOctaxe (12 TH/s) doubles that. On average that is a wait of about 3,000 years (1,500 with the NerdOctaxe) — but it's a lottery: solo blocks have been found by small miners, and every block is a fresh draw. The calculator above uses the live network numbers.
How is solo mining probability calculated?
Probability per block = your hashrate ÷ network hashrate. Cumulative probability over N blocks = 1 − (1 − p)^N. Expected time = (network hashrate ÷ your hashrate) × 10 minutes. This calculator fetches the live network hashrate from mempool.space for accurate results.
Is solo mining worth it?
For steady income, pool mining is better. But many home miners love the pure lottery thrill: quiet 24/7 operation, low power use, and a real (if tiny) chance to win a full block worth tens of thousands of euros. Think of it as the world's longest-running lottery ticket.
Has anyone solo mined a Bitcoin block with a home miner?
Yes — it has happened multiple times. CKPool documents solo miners winning full blocks worth $150,000+. In 2023–2024 there were several documented cases. It's extremely rare, but real. That's the whole point.